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Forecasting Oil Price And Demand

Oil demand (current and projected)1:
The current oil demand is 82.8 million bpd. The world population is expected to grow from 6.6 billion today to 6.9 billion in 2011. On an average, the world consumes 4.58 barrels per capita, every year. Based on this trend, due to the parallel growth of GDP in the same period, the projected oil demand for 2011 is 31.57 billion barrels. On a single day, say 1 Nov 2006, the demand would be 86.5 million bpd (barrels per day).
Year World
Population (Millions) Billion barrels
Consumed Per Year World (bcy) barrels/capita per year Price/barrel
1986 4890 22.54 4.60 $ 32
1989 5150 24.04 4.67 $ 32
1992 5400 24.43 4.52 $ 29
1995 5610 25.51 4.54 $ 25
1998 5870 26.62 4.51 $ 18
2001 6130 27.74 4.53 $ 31
2004 6400 29.75 4.67 $ 55
2006 6600 30.23 4.58 (average) $ 59
2011 6900 (Projected) 31.57 (Projected) 4.58 (average) ?

Oil Supply/Production:
The current capacity (oil production) levels will be able to meet the required supply/demand for oil......


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Approximate Word Count: 1187
Approximate Pages: 5 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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