Heuristics And Decision Making Theories
Reviewing Activities
First activity has a demonstration of overconfidence and confidence ratings. Due to a cognitive dissonance, Americans with the preset values of democracy would not consider themselves as invaders. (Well, some my not after the Iraq war.) “The concept of overconfidence is based on a large body of evidence from cognitive psychological experiments and surveys showing that individuals overestimate their own abilities or knowledge as well as the precision of their information.” (Definition) Case studies by Oskamp (1965) found that a people’s confidence in their decisions does not necessarily increase the accuracy of their decisions. In fact, this is the danger of overconfidence.
The second activity illustrates calibration. “Calibration is the degree to which confidence matches accuracy.” (Plous, 1993, p. 222) Decision makers accuracy is based on the amount of times he/she choices the correct alternative. Asking what is the probability of an answer......
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