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Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts clearly indicates by the authors will attempt to explain the relation between time and election forecasts. The introduction tells you more specifically, that we are interested in just how far in advance electoral expectations come into focus. The article is very clear an appropriately written for its target audience.
This article examines a model of predicting an election that has been successful at predicting past presidential elections. The two variables are cumulative per capita income growth and presidential approval. These "fundamental" variables can predict the results well when measured shortly in advance of the election, when the outcome is already becoming clear in the polls. However, as one steps further back from the election, the predictive power is depleted. Income growth and approval readings taken early in the election year can barely predict readings of the same variables just prior to the election.
The findings......

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Approximate Word Count: 518
Approximate Pages: 3 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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