Economic Forecasts
Influence of
factor in 2007 on:
Factor Demand Margins
Summary Retail demand will be slightly stronger in 2007 than 2006. Consumer confidence has been boosted by falls in the price of petrol and a pick up in the housing market. With the wider economy growing healthily, employment and earnings will also gain ground, lifting disposable income and consumers’ retail expenditure. However the recovery could easily be derailed if US economic growth deteriorates or if inflationary pressures necessitate more than the expected one additional interest rate rise. Though retailers will benefit from lower operating cost inflation and a strong pound, the need for them to limit price rises will provide little relief to margins.
GDP Despite the recent increase in interest rates prospects are still promising for 2007 and GDP should grow by 2.9%, up from 2.7% in 2006. A fall in oil prices has made consumers feel better off and eased cost price inflation for businesses. Renewed house price......
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