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Nahaj

Long-Term Growth As A
Sequence of Exponential Modes
Robin Hanson ∗
Department of Economics
George Mason University†
December, 2000
First Version September 1998
Abstract
A world product time series covering two million years is well fit by either a sum of four
exponentials, or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) combination of three exponential
growth modes: “hunting,” “farming,” and “industry.” The CES parameters suggest that farming
substituted for hunting, while industry complemented farming, making the industrial revolution
a smoother transition. Each mode grew world product by a factor of a few hundred, and grew
a hundred times faster than its predecessor. This weakly suggests that within the next century
a new mode might appear with a doubling time measured in days, not years.
JEL Categories: O00, N10
Keywords: Long World Growth Industrial Revolution
∗For their comments, I thank Curt Adams, Bryan Caplan, Joel Cohen, Roger Congleton,......


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Approximate Word Count: 6822
Approximate Pages: 28 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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    Nahaj Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes Robin Hanson ∗ Department of Economics George Mason University† December, 2000 First Version September 1998 Abstract