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Dramatic Fluctuations of Devils Lake, North Dakota:
Climate Connections and Forecasts

Connely K. Baldwin and Upmanu Lall
Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-8200
Introduction

The recent (1992-date) record rise in the level of the Devils Lake, North Dakota, has led to a number of questions as to the nature of regional and global climate variability, and the utility of existing methods for forecasting lake levels and assessing the associated flood risk. A purpose of the work presented here was to explore the connection of the Devils Lake volumetric fluctuations to interannual and longer regional and global climate fluctuations, and to test the performance of recently proposed time series forecasting methods. Wiche and Vecchia (1995), and Osborne (1998) provide background information on the lake, and prior forecasting and climate analysis. Key trends in hydroclimatic variables in the Devils Lake region are first identified and discussed in......

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Approximate Word Count: 10194
Approximate Pages: 41 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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