Women's Oregon Trail
IT and the Business Cycle
By IT Analysis
Posted: 06/08/2002 at 14:06 GMT
There is a regular business cycle, which lasts for about 9 years. The cycle is characterised by a period of growth, then strong growth and then recession. Unfortunately, the cycle isn't exact and it isn't dependable, or else you could make money out of it, by gambling on it. Sometimes it lasts 7 years, sometimes 10 or 11.
In the later stages of the last business cycle some odd things were happening. Growth in the US economy was much higher than anyone expected and unemployment much lower. Productivity statistics from the US Government suggested that from 1996 productivity was improving at an average 2.2 percent per year, which was a dramatic improvement on the 1 percent average for the previous 25 years.
The point at which productivity turned up coincided with the point at which the Internet started to become visible. That may have been a coincidence, but there was another strange quirk in the......
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