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Interest Rates

Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Abstract
I investigate the information content of the nominal and real term structure of interest rates for the United Kingdom for the period 1985-2004. The United Kingdom has the longest experience among developed countries with issuing inflation-indexed securities, and it is the only country with a sufficient number of outstanding index-linked bonds to permit the estimation of a well specified real yield curve. My first essay uses inflation expectation proxies derived from the term structure for the estimation of a forward-looking Phillips curve. My second paper deals with the predictive power of the term structure regarding future changes in monetary policy. My third essay considers a simultaneous New Keynesian model of inflation, output and monetary policy. The Tradeoff between Inflation and the Real Economy, Forward-Looking Behavior and the Inflation Premium (with Richard Startz)In this paper we use the inflation......


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Approximate Word Count: 620
Approximate Pages: 3 (250 words per double-spaced page)

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